Perspectivas teóricas sobre la dinámica de la mixomatosis con aplicaciones en control biológico

  • Juan P. Aparicio Department of Science and Technology, Universidad Metropolitana, San Juan, Puerto Rico
  • Hernán G. Solari Depto. de Física, Fac. de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Univ. de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Never A. Bonino Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, EEA Bariloche, Bariloche, Argentina
Palabras clave: coevolución, dispersión de infección, modelos espacialmente explícitos, modelos matemáticos, Oryctolagus cuniculus

Resumen

La mixomatosis es una enfermedad altamente mortal del conejo europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) producida por el virus myxoma, transmitida por mosquitos y pulgas, y utilizada como control biológico en algunos países como Australia. Poblaciones exóticas de conejos constituyen plagas que generan gran perjuicio económico en diversas partes del mundo incluyendo la Argentina. En este trabajo presentamos modelos para la dinámica y la dispersión de la mixomatosis en poblaciones silvestres de O. cuniculus. Utilizando un modelo espacialmente explícito estudiamos la dispersión de la enfermedad. Las velocidades de dispersión obtenidas son del orden de magnitud de las observadas en el campo para el caso de Gran Bretaña, pero subestima las observaciones realizadas en Australia. Utilizando simulaciones estocásticas mostramos que la probabilidad de establecimiento de la mixomatosis depende de la virulencia de las cepas introducidas. Esto significa que la estrategia usual, consistente en la inoculación de cepas altamente virulentas en las poblaciones silvestres de conejos europeos, podría no ser la más adecuada.

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Publicado
2006-06-01
Sección
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