Perspectivas teóricas sobre la dinámica de la mixomatosis con aplicaciones en control biológico
Palabras clave:
coevolución, dispersión de infección, modelos espacialmente explícitos, modelos matemáticos, Oryctolagus cuniculusResumen
La mixomatosis es una enfermedad altamente mortal del conejo europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) producida por el virus myxoma, transmitida por mosquitos y pulgas, y utilizada como control biológico en algunos países como Australia. Poblaciones exóticas de conejos constituyen plagas que generan gran perjuicio económico en diversas partes del mundo incluyendo la Argentina. En este trabajo presentamos modelos para la dinámica y la dispersión de la mixomatosis en poblaciones silvestres de O. cuniculus. Utilizando un modelo espacialmente explícito estudiamos la dispersión de la enfermedad. Las velocidades de dispersión obtenidas son del orden de magnitud de las observadas en el campo para el caso de Gran Bretaña, pero subestima las observaciones realizadas en Australia. Utilizando simulaciones estocásticas mostramos que la probabilidad de establecimiento de la mixomatosis depende de la virulencia de las cepas introducidas. Esto significa que la estrategia usual, consistente en la inoculación de cepas altamente virulentas en las poblaciones silvestres de conejos europeos, podría no ser la más adecuada.
Citas
ANDERSON, RM & RM MAY. 1979. Population biology of infectious diseases. Nature 289:361-367.
APARICIO, JP. 1999. Dinámica de Procesos Epidémicos. Tesis doctoral, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
APARICIO, JP & HG SOLARi. 2001a. Population dynamics: a Poisson approximation and its relation to the Langevin process. Physical Review Letters 86:4183-4186.
APARICIO, JP & HG SOLARI. 2001b. Sustained oscillations in stochastic systems. Mathematical Biosciences 169:15-25.
APARICIO, JP; HG SOLARI & N BONINO. 2004. Competition and Coexistence in Host-Parasite Systems: The myxomatosis case. Population Ecology 46:71-85.
BONINO, N & J AMAYA. 1985. Distribución geográfica, perjuicios y control del conejo silvestre europeo Oryctolagus cuniculus en la República Argentina. IDIA 429-432:25-50.
BONINO, NA & R GADER. 1987. Expansión del conejo silvestre europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) en la República Argentina y perspectivas futuras. Anales del Museo de Historia Natural (Valparaíso, Chile) 18:157-162.
BONINO, N & R SORIGUER. 2004. Distribución actual y dispersión del conejo europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) en la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. Mastozoología Neotropical 11(2):237-241.
LE BRERETON, JG. 1953. Initial spread of myxomatosis in Australia. Nature 172:108-110.
COWAN, DP. 1987. Aspects of de social organization of the European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Ethology 75:197-210.
DWYER, G; SA LEVIN & L BUTTEL. 1990. A simulation model of the population dynamics and evolution of myxomatosis. Ecol. Monographs 60:423-447.
FENNER, F. 1983. Biological control, as exemplified by smallpox eradication and myxomatosis. Proceedings of the Royal Society 218:259-285.
FENNER, F & FN RATCLIFFE. 1965. Mixomatosis. Cambridge University Press. London.
FENNER, F & J ROSS. 1994. Myxomatosis. Pp. 205-240 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
FENNESSY, BV. 1966. The impact of wildlife species on sheep production in Australia. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Animal Production 6:148-156.
FERRIÉRE, G; J CERDA & R ROACH. 1983. El conejo silvestre en Chile. Corporación Nacional Forestal, Boletín Técnico (Chile) 8:1-35.
FLUX, JEC. 1965. Timing of the breeding season in the hare, Lepus europaeus pallas and rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus. Mammalia 29:557-562.
FLUX, JEC & PJ FULLAGAR. 1983. World distribution of the rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus. Acta Zoologica Fennica 174:75-77.
FUENTES, ER; FM JAKSIC & JA SIMONETTI. 1983. European rabbits versus native rodents in central Chile: effects on shrub seedlings. Oecología 58:411-414.
FULLAGAR, PJ. 1981. Methods for studying the behavior of rabbits in a 33-ha enclosure at Canberra and under natural conditions at Calindary NSW. Pp. 24-254 in: K Myers & CD MacInnes (eds). Proceedings of the World Lagomorph Conference. Guelph, Ontario.
GIBB, JA. 1993. Sociality, time and space in a sparse population of rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Journal of Zoology 229:581-607.
GIBB, JA & J MORGAN WILLIAMS. 1994. The rabbit in New Zealand. Pp. 158-204 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
HOWARD, WE. 1958. The rabbit problem in New Zealand. New Zealand Dept. Sci. Industrial Research Information Ser. 16:1-47.
HOWARD, WE. 1967. Ecological changes in New Zealand due to introduced mammals. IUCN Publications New Series 9:219-240.
HUDSON, JR & N MANSI. 1955. Attenuated strains of myxomatosis virus in England. Veterinary Record 67:746-747.
LEIGH, JH; DJ WIMBUSH; DH WOOD; MD HOLGATE; AV SLEE ET AL. 1987. Effects of rabbits grazing and fire in a subalpine environment. I: Herbaceous and shrubby vegetation. Australian Journal of Botany 35:433-464.
LEIGH, JH; DH WOOD; MD HOLGATE; AV SLEE & MG STANGER. 1989. Effects of rabbits and kangaroo grazing on two semi-arid grassland communities in central-western New South Wales. Australian Journal of Botany 37:375-396.
LINAEUS, C. 1758. Systema naturae, regnum animale. 10th ed. Upsala.
LLOYD, HG. 1981. Biological observations on post-myxomatosis rabbit populations in Britain. Pp. 55-79 in: K Myers & CM McInnes (eds). Proceedings of the World Lagomorph Conference. Guelph, Ontario.
MASSAD, E. 1987. Transmission rates and the evolution of pathogenicity. Evolution 41:1127-1130.
MAY, RM & RM ANDERSON. 1983. Epidemiology and genetics in the coevolution of parasites and hosts. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 219:281-313.
MEAD-BRIGGS, AR & JA VAUGHAN. 1975. The differential transmissibility of myxoma virus strains of differing virulence grades by the rabbit flea Spilopsyllus cuniculi. Journal of Hygiene 75:237-247.
MERCHANT, JC; PJ KERR; NG SIMMS; GM HOOD; RP PECH ET AL. 2003. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. III. Release, persistence and rate of spread of an identifiable strain of myxoma virus. Epidemiol. Infect. 130:135–147.
MYERS, K. 1960. Rabbit Biology and Behavior and their Bearing on Control. Rabbit Control Symposium. Sydney 1960, 26-33.
MYERS, K & BS PARER. 1975. A study of the biology of the wild rabbit in climatically different regions in eastern Australia. VI. Changes in numbers and distribution related to climate and land systems in semiarid northwestern New South Wales. Australian Wildlife Research 2:11-32.
NÅSELL, I. 1995. The threshold concept in deterministic and stochastic models. Pp 71-83 in: D Mollison (ed). Epidemics Models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press.
PARER, I. 1977. The population ecology of the wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus (L.) in a Mediterranean-type climate in New South Wales. Australian Wildlife Research 4:171-205.
PARER, I; W SOBEY; D CONOLLY & R MORTON. 1994. Virulence of strains of myxoma virus and the resistance of wild rabbits from different locations in Australasia. Australian Journal of Zoology 42:347-362.
RATCLIFFE, FN; K MYERS; BV FENNESSY & JH CALABY. 1952. Myxomatosis in Australia. A step towards the biological control of the rabbit. Nature 170:7-11.
RENSHAW, E. 1991. Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time. Cambridge University Press, London.
ROGER, PM; CP ARTHUR & RC SORIGUER. 1994. The rabbit in continental Europe. Pp. 22-63 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
RÖDEL, HG; A BORA; J KAISER; P KAETZKE; M KHASCHEI ET AL. 2004. Density-dependent reproduction in the European rabbit: a consequence of individual response and age-dependent reproductive performance. Oikos 104:529-539
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1977. Innate resistance to myxomatosis in wild rabbits in England. Journal of Hygiene 79:411-415.
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1984. The development of genetic resistance to myxomatosis in wild rabbits in Britain. Journal of Hygiene 92:255-261.
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1987. Changes in the virulence of myxoma virus strains in Britain. Epidemiology and Infection 98:113-117.
ROSS, J & AM TITTENSOR. 1986a. Influence of myxomatosis in regulating rabbit numbers. Mammal Review 16:163-168.
ROSS, J & AM TITTENSOR. 1986b. The establishment and spread of myxomatosis and its effect on rabbit populations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 314:599-606.
SEYMOUR, RM. 1992. A study of the interaction of virulence, resistance, and resource limitation in a model of myxomatosis mediated by the european rabbit flea Spilopsylus cuniculi (Dale). Ecol. Modelling 60:281-308.
WHEELER, SH & DR KING. 1985. The European rabbit in south-western Australia. III. Survival. Australian Wildlife Research 12:213-226.
WILLIAMS, CK; I PARER; BJ COMAN; J BURLEY & ML BRAYSHER. 1995. Managing vertebrate pests: Rabbits. Bureau of Resource Sciences/CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
APARICIO, JP. 1999. Dinámica de Procesos Epidémicos. Tesis doctoral, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
APARICIO, JP & HG SOLARi. 2001a. Population dynamics: a Poisson approximation and its relation to the Langevin process. Physical Review Letters 86:4183-4186.
APARICIO, JP & HG SOLARI. 2001b. Sustained oscillations in stochastic systems. Mathematical Biosciences 169:15-25.
APARICIO, JP; HG SOLARI & N BONINO. 2004. Competition and Coexistence in Host-Parasite Systems: The myxomatosis case. Population Ecology 46:71-85.
BONINO, N & J AMAYA. 1985. Distribución geográfica, perjuicios y control del conejo silvestre europeo Oryctolagus cuniculus en la República Argentina. IDIA 429-432:25-50.
BONINO, NA & R GADER. 1987. Expansión del conejo silvestre europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) en la República Argentina y perspectivas futuras. Anales del Museo de Historia Natural (Valparaíso, Chile) 18:157-162.
BONINO, N & R SORIGUER. 2004. Distribución actual y dispersión del conejo europeo (Oryctolagus cuniculus) en la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. Mastozoología Neotropical 11(2):237-241.
LE BRERETON, JG. 1953. Initial spread of myxomatosis in Australia. Nature 172:108-110.
COWAN, DP. 1987. Aspects of de social organization of the European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Ethology 75:197-210.
DWYER, G; SA LEVIN & L BUTTEL. 1990. A simulation model of the population dynamics and evolution of myxomatosis. Ecol. Monographs 60:423-447.
FENNER, F. 1983. Biological control, as exemplified by smallpox eradication and myxomatosis. Proceedings of the Royal Society 218:259-285.
FENNER, F & FN RATCLIFFE. 1965. Mixomatosis. Cambridge University Press. London.
FENNER, F & J ROSS. 1994. Myxomatosis. Pp. 205-240 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
FENNESSY, BV. 1966. The impact of wildlife species on sheep production in Australia. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Animal Production 6:148-156.
FERRIÉRE, G; J CERDA & R ROACH. 1983. El conejo silvestre en Chile. Corporación Nacional Forestal, Boletín Técnico (Chile) 8:1-35.
FLUX, JEC. 1965. Timing of the breeding season in the hare, Lepus europaeus pallas and rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus. Mammalia 29:557-562.
FLUX, JEC & PJ FULLAGAR. 1983. World distribution of the rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus. Acta Zoologica Fennica 174:75-77.
FUENTES, ER; FM JAKSIC & JA SIMONETTI. 1983. European rabbits versus native rodents in central Chile: effects on shrub seedlings. Oecología 58:411-414.
FULLAGAR, PJ. 1981. Methods for studying the behavior of rabbits in a 33-ha enclosure at Canberra and under natural conditions at Calindary NSW. Pp. 24-254 in: K Myers & CD MacInnes (eds). Proceedings of the World Lagomorph Conference. Guelph, Ontario.
GIBB, JA. 1993. Sociality, time and space in a sparse population of rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Journal of Zoology 229:581-607.
GIBB, JA & J MORGAN WILLIAMS. 1994. The rabbit in New Zealand. Pp. 158-204 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
HOWARD, WE. 1958. The rabbit problem in New Zealand. New Zealand Dept. Sci. Industrial Research Information Ser. 16:1-47.
HOWARD, WE. 1967. Ecological changes in New Zealand due to introduced mammals. IUCN Publications New Series 9:219-240.
HUDSON, JR & N MANSI. 1955. Attenuated strains of myxomatosis virus in England. Veterinary Record 67:746-747.
LEIGH, JH; DJ WIMBUSH; DH WOOD; MD HOLGATE; AV SLEE ET AL. 1987. Effects of rabbits grazing and fire in a subalpine environment. I: Herbaceous and shrubby vegetation. Australian Journal of Botany 35:433-464.
LEIGH, JH; DH WOOD; MD HOLGATE; AV SLEE & MG STANGER. 1989. Effects of rabbits and kangaroo grazing on two semi-arid grassland communities in central-western New South Wales. Australian Journal of Botany 37:375-396.
LINAEUS, C. 1758. Systema naturae, regnum animale. 10th ed. Upsala.
LLOYD, HG. 1981. Biological observations on post-myxomatosis rabbit populations in Britain. Pp. 55-79 in: K Myers & CM McInnes (eds). Proceedings of the World Lagomorph Conference. Guelph, Ontario.
MASSAD, E. 1987. Transmission rates and the evolution of pathogenicity. Evolution 41:1127-1130.
MAY, RM & RM ANDERSON. 1983. Epidemiology and genetics in the coevolution of parasites and hosts. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 219:281-313.
MEAD-BRIGGS, AR & JA VAUGHAN. 1975. The differential transmissibility of myxoma virus strains of differing virulence grades by the rabbit flea Spilopsyllus cuniculi. Journal of Hygiene 75:237-247.
MERCHANT, JC; PJ KERR; NG SIMMS; GM HOOD; RP PECH ET AL. 2003. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. III. Release, persistence and rate of spread of an identifiable strain of myxoma virus. Epidemiol. Infect. 130:135–147.
MYERS, K. 1960. Rabbit Biology and Behavior and their Bearing on Control. Rabbit Control Symposium. Sydney 1960, 26-33.
MYERS, K & BS PARER. 1975. A study of the biology of the wild rabbit in climatically different regions in eastern Australia. VI. Changes in numbers and distribution related to climate and land systems in semiarid northwestern New South Wales. Australian Wildlife Research 2:11-32.
NÅSELL, I. 1995. The threshold concept in deterministic and stochastic models. Pp 71-83 in: D Mollison (ed). Epidemics Models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press.
PARER, I. 1977. The population ecology of the wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus (L.) in a Mediterranean-type climate in New South Wales. Australian Wildlife Research 4:171-205.
PARER, I; W SOBEY; D CONOLLY & R MORTON. 1994. Virulence of strains of myxoma virus and the resistance of wild rabbits from different locations in Australasia. Australian Journal of Zoology 42:347-362.
RATCLIFFE, FN; K MYERS; BV FENNESSY & JH CALABY. 1952. Myxomatosis in Australia. A step towards the biological control of the rabbit. Nature 170:7-11.
RENSHAW, E. 1991. Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time. Cambridge University Press, London.
ROGER, PM; CP ARTHUR & RC SORIGUER. 1994. The rabbit in continental Europe. Pp. 22-63 in: HV Thompson & CM King (eds). The European rabbit: the history and biology of a successful colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
RÖDEL, HG; A BORA; J KAISER; P KAETZKE; M KHASCHEI ET AL. 2004. Density-dependent reproduction in the European rabbit: a consequence of individual response and age-dependent reproductive performance. Oikos 104:529-539
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1977. Innate resistance to myxomatosis in wild rabbits in England. Journal of Hygiene 79:411-415.
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1984. The development of genetic resistance to myxomatosis in wild rabbits in Britain. Journal of Hygiene 92:255-261.
ROSS, J & MF SANDERS. 1987. Changes in the virulence of myxoma virus strains in Britain. Epidemiology and Infection 98:113-117.
ROSS, J & AM TITTENSOR. 1986a. Influence of myxomatosis in regulating rabbit numbers. Mammal Review 16:163-168.
ROSS, J & AM TITTENSOR. 1986b. The establishment and spread of myxomatosis and its effect on rabbit populations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 314:599-606.
SEYMOUR, RM. 1992. A study of the interaction of virulence, resistance, and resource limitation in a model of myxomatosis mediated by the european rabbit flea Spilopsylus cuniculi (Dale). Ecol. Modelling 60:281-308.
WHEELER, SH & DR KING. 1985. The European rabbit in south-western Australia. III. Survival. Australian Wildlife Research 12:213-226.
WILLIAMS, CK; I PARER; BJ COMAN; J BURLEY & ML BRAYSHER. 1995. Managing vertebrate pests: Rabbits. Bureau of Resource Sciences/CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
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2006-06-01
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Aparicio, J. P., Solari, H. G., & Bonino, N. A. (2006). Perspectivas teóricas sobre la dinámica de la mixomatosis con aplicaciones en control biológico. Ecología Austral, 16(1), 015–028. Recuperado a partir de https://ojs.ecologiaaustral.com.ar/index.php/Ecologia_Austral/article/view/1449
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