Distribución potencial de la especie Puya raimondii e importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas frente al cambio climático
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25260/EA.22.32.3.0.1943Palabras clave:
nicho ecológico, distribución de especies, especies de alta montaña, áreas protegidas, conservaciónResumen
La Reina de los Andes (Puya raimondii) es una especie vegetal categorizada como ‘en peligro’ debido a la fragmentación y la perdida de hábitat, y a la disminución de sus poblaciones a través de su área de distribución. Usamos modelamiento de nicho ecológico en el contexto de varios escenarios de cambio climático para estimar la distribución potencial de la especie para el presente y para los años 2050 y 2070. Analizamos el efecto de perdida de hábitat y la importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas a través de su rango de extensión. Los modelos de nicho ecológico predijeron una distribución de 137522 km2 y un remanente de hábitat de 69356 km2 entre Perú y Bolivia, reducido en un 54.4% por las actividades humanas. En promedio, el cambio climático reducirá el área de distribución potencial un 41.3% en el 2050 y un 51.1% en el 2070. Las áreas naturales protegidas actuales no son significativas para la conservación de esta especie; cubren sólo un 7.5% de su distribución, pero observamos una reducción de 41.7-47.5% de hábitat de la especie dentro de esas áreas a causa del cambio climático. Estos resultados ofrecen una perspectiva de estudios de cambio climático para definir unidades de conservación y estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático.
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