Cambio climático en los Andes Norpatagónicos: Tendencias recientes de temperatura y precipitación
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25260/EA.25.35.2.0.2475Palabras clave:
anomalia de temperatura, SPI, transecta latitudinal, Manso, fase positiva, MASResumen
Este estudio examina el cambio climático en los Andes Norpatagónicos (NPA), analizando las tendencias de temperatura y precipitación durante las últimas tres décadas. Utilizando datos de 12 estaciones meteorológicas clave, evaluamos los cambios en las temperaturas medias anuales y los patrones de precipitación, con un enfoque en la supresión de precipitación en la ladera de sotavento a lo largo de dos transectas oeste-este, de 100 km: las transectas La Angostura (40.75° S) y Manso (41.5° S). Los resultados revelan una tendencia de calentamiento consistente en todas las estaciones, más pronunciada en la estación Alerce dentro del NPA, donde las temperaturas aumentaron 0.82 °C por década desde 1993. Este calentamiento se intensificó después de 2007, marcado por el aumento de anomalías térmicas y eventos cálidos extremos más frecuentes. Las tendencias de precipitación muestran disminuciones significativas en ambas transectas, reflejadas en el índice estandarizado de precipitación, con sequías moderadas a severas cada vez más comunes desde 2016. Se observó un declive notable en la precipitación desde 2007; en especial, en la transecta Manso, más afectada por el retroceso hacia el oeste de las isoyetas de precipitación en los últimos 5 años (2016-2021). Estos patrones probablemente están asociados a la fase positiva del Modo Anular del Sur (SAM, por sus siglas en inglés), que ha impulsado un desplazamiento hacia el polo de las trayectorias de tormentas, reduciendo la precipitación en el NPA. Los cambios climáticos observados tienen implicaciones críticas para la hidrología regional y para la dinámica de los ecosistemas, y destacan la necesidad de monitorear las interacciones entre la circulación atmosférica (e.g., SAM) y la variabilidad climática local. Nuestros hallazgos subrayan la urgencia de comprender estos procesos para anticipar los impactos del cambio climático en curso en el NPA.
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