Modelos de distribución potencial de mamíferos nativos en la Patagonia

  • Melina E. Zuliani Departamento de Análisis de Sistemas Complejos. Fundación Bariloche-CONICET
  • Adrián Monjeau Departamento de Análisis de Sistemas Complejos. Fundación Bariloche-CONICET
Palabras clave: envoltura climática, modelo de distribución, Patagonia, mamíferos nativos

Resumen

Ante las previsiones sobre el cambio climático y su influencia en los rangos geográficos de las especies, es importante esclarecer qué indicadores climáticos son los que mejor explican las distribuciones actuales, como herramientas de conservación de especies amenazadas. Asimismo, es relevante conocer el porcentaje de protección que tienen los hábitats idóneos para dichas especies. En este trabajo identificamos las principales variables climáticas que explican los patrones de distribución de 16 especies de mamíferos medianos y grandes en la Patagonia mediante el modelo MaxEnt, utilizando 19 variables bioclimáticas del WorldClim, la elevación, el NDVI, el EVI y un proxy de presión antrópica (human footprint). Calculamos el porcentaje de cobertura de áreas protegidas para cada especie y encontramos que la mayor parte del hábitat ideal está fuera de ellas, y que las áreas de protección estricta (I y II) tienen más registros de presencia que las áreas de recursos manejados (III a VI). Las especies de distribución restringida son las más vulnerables a la extinción por ser menos resilientes a los cambios en la envoltura climática, sobre todo fuera de áreas protegidas.

Citas

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Modelos de distribución potencial de mamíferos nativos en la Patagonia
Publicado
2021-11-05