Modelos de distribución potencial de mamíferos nativos en la Patagonia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25260/EA.22.32.1.0.1706Palabras clave:
envoltura climática, modelo de distribución, Patagonia, mamíferos nativosResumen
Ante las previsiones sobre el cambio climático y su influencia en los rangos geográficos de las especies, es importante esclarecer qué indicadores climáticos son los que mejor explican las distribuciones actuales, como herramientas de conservación de especies amenazadas. Asimismo, es relevante conocer el porcentaje de protección que tienen los hábitats idóneos para dichas especies. En este trabajo identificamos las principales variables climáticas que explican los patrones de distribución de 16 especies de mamíferos medianos y grandes en la Patagonia mediante el modelo MaxEnt, utilizando 19 variables bioclimáticas del WorldClim, la elevación, el NDVI, el EVI y un proxy de presión antrópica (human footprint). Calculamos el porcentaje de cobertura de áreas protegidas para cada especie y encontramos que la mayor parte del hábitat ideal está fuera de ellas, y que las áreas de protección estricta (I y II) tienen más registros de presencia que las áreas de recursos manejados (III a VI). Las especies de distribución restringida son las más vulnerables a la extinción por ser menos resilientes a los cambios en la envoltura climática, sobre todo fuera de áreas protegidas.
Citas
Abramson, G., M. F. Laguna, M. N. Kuperman, J. A. Monjeau, and J. L. Lanata. 2017. On the roles of hunting and habitat size on the extinction of megafauna. Quaternary International 431:194-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.08.043.
Acosta, G., and M. Lucherini. 2008. Leopardus guigna. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2014.2. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/15311/0.
Alonso Roldán, V., D. E. Udrizar Sauthier, S. Giannoni, and C. M. Campos. 2019. Dolichotis patagonum. In SAyDS-SAREM (eds.). Categorización 2019 de los mamíferos de Argentina según su riesgo de extinción. Lista Roja de los mamíferos de Argentina. Versión digital: URL: cma.sarem.org.ar.
Astorga, F., L. E. Escobar, D. Poo-Muñoz, J. Escobar-Dodero, S. Rojas-Hucks, M. Alvarado-Rybak, et al. 2018. Distributional ecology of Andes hantavirus: a macroecological approach. International Journal of Health Geographics 17(1):22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-018-0142-z.
Barve, N., V. Barve, A. Jiménez-Valverde, and A. Lira-Noriega. 2011. The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. Ecological Modelling 222:1810-1819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.011.
Bello, M. A. 2003. Ecología del pudú (Pudu pudu, Molina 1782) y su valor como especie focal, en la Provincia de Valdivia, Ecorregión Valdiviana. Tesis Licenciatura. Universidad Católica de Temuco, Temuco, Chile.
Bouchet, P. J., and J. J. Meeuwig. 2015. Drifting baited stereo-videography: a novel sampling tool for surveying pelagic wildlife in offshore marine reserves. Ecosphere 6(8):137. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00380.1.
Brown, J. H. 1995. Macroecology. Journal of Mammalogy 78(1):257-260. https://doi.org/10.2307/1382661.
Bruner, A. G., R. E. Gullison, R. E. Rice, and G. Fonseca. 2001. Do parks protect tropical biodiversity? Science 291:125-128. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5501.125.
Chauvenet, A. L. M., and M. Barnes. 2016. Expanding protected areas is not enough. Science 353:551-552. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah3762.
Corti, P., U. Wittmer, and M. Festa-Bianchet. 2010. Dynamics of a small population of endangered huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus) in Chilean Patagonia. Journal of Mammalogy 91:690-697. https://doi.org/10.1644/09-MAMM-A-047.1.
Corti, P., A. B. A. Shafer, D. W. Coltman, et al. 2011. Past bottlenecks and current population fragmentation of endangered huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus): implications for preservation of genetic diversity. Conservation Genetics 12:119-128. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-009-9997-7.
Díaz, N. I., and J. Smith-Flueck. 2000. The patagonian huemul. A mysterious deer on the brink of extinction. L.O.L.A., Buenos Aires.
Díaz, P., B. I. Marqués, and A. R. Vila. 2013. Seasonal habitat use and selection of the endangered huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus) in Patagonian Andes. Mammalia 77:371-380. https://doi.org/10.1515/mammalia-2012-0078.
Eldridge, W. D., M. M. MacNamara, and N. V. Pacheco. 1987. Activity patterns and habitat utilization of pudus (Pudu puda) in south-central Chile. Pp. 352-370 in C. M. Wemmer (ed.). Biology and management of the Cervidae. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, D.C.
Elith, J., C. Graham, R. Anderson, M. Dudik, and S. Ferrier. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x.
Escobar, L., A. Lira-Noriega, G. Medina-Vogel, and A. T. Peterson. 2014. Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of MaxEnt and NicheA to assure strict model transference. Geospatial Health 9:221-229. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2014.19.
Feller, W. 1967. An introduction to probability theory and its applications. Second edition. Wiley, New York. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224065.1970.11980411.
Fick, S. E., and R. J. Hijmans. 2017. WorldClim 2: new 1km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 37:4302-4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086.
Flueck, W. T., and J. M Smith-Flueck. 2006. Predicaments of endangered huemul deer, Hippocamelus bisulcus, in Argentina: a review. European Journal of Wildlife Research 52:69-80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-005-0020-4.
González, B., F. Brook, and G. Martin. 2021. Distribución y conservación de las especies de Marmosini (Didelphimorphia, Didelphidae) de Colombia. PREPRINT (Versión 1) disponible en Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-557895/v1.
Guisan, A., and W. Thuiller. 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 8:993-1009. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1461-0248.2005.00792.X.
Hernández, P. A., C. H. Graham, L. L. Master, and D. L. Albert. 2006. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 29:773-785. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04700.x.
Hershkovitz, P. 1982. Neotropical deer (Cervidae). Part I. Pudus, genus Pudu Gray. Fieldiana Zoology, New Series, Chicago. https://doi.org/10.5962/bhl.title.5080.
Hijmans, R. J., S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25:1965-1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276.
International Union for Conservation of Nature. 2017. Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria (V.13). URL: tinyurl.com/ccf62c45.
Jiménez, J. E. 2010. Southern Pudu Pudu puda (Molina 1782). Pp. 140-150 in S. González and J. Barbanti (eds.). Neotropical cervidology: biology and medicine of Latin American deer. Funep/IUCN, Jaboticabal, Brazil.
Johnson, C. J., and M. Gillingham. 2005. An evaluation of mapped species distribution models used for conservation planning. Environmental Conservation 32:117-128. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892905002171.
Kearney, M., and W. P. Porter. 2004. Mapping the fundamental niche: physiology, climate, and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard. Ecology 85:3119-3131. https://doi.org/10.1890/03-0820.
Kuemmerle, T., V. C. Radeloff, K. Perzanowski, P. Kozlo, T. Sipko, P. Khoyetskyy, A. Bashta, E. Chikurova, I. Parnikoza, L. Baskin, P. Angelstam, and D. M. Waller. 2011. Predicting potential European bison habitat across its former range. Ecological Applications 21:830-843. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0073.1.
León, R. J. C., D. Bran, M. Collantes, J. M. Paruelo, and A. Soriano. 1998. Grandes unidades de vegetación de la Patagonia extra andina. Ecología Austral 8:125-144. URL: tinyurl.com/4yhud7rz.
Lim, B. K., A. T. Peterson, and M. D. Engstrom. 2002. Robustness of ecological niche modelling algorithms for mammals in Guyana. Biodiversity Conservation 11:1237-1246. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016038501986.
Lucherini, M., E. Cuyckens, M. Morales, and J. Reppucci. 2019. Leopardus colocolo. In SAyDS-SAREM (eds.). Categorización 2019 de los mamíferos de Argentina según su riesgo de extinción. Lista Roja de los mamíferos de Argentina. https://doi.org/10.31687/SaremLR.19.142.
Martin, G. M. 2010. Geographic distribution and historical occurrence of Dromiciops gliroides Thomas (Metatheria: Microbiotheria). Journal of Mammalogy 91:1025-1035. https://doi.org/10.1644/09-MAMM-A-347.1.
Merow, C., M. J. Smith, and J. A. Silander. 2013. A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species' distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography 36:1058-1069. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x.
Miller, J. 2010. Species distribution modeling. Geography Compass 4:490-509. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00351.x.
Monjeau, J. A. 2010. Conservation crossroads and the role of hierarchy in the decision-making process. Natureza and Conservação 8:1-8. https://doi.org/10.4322/NATCON.00802002.
Monjeau, J. A., E. C. Birney, L. Ghermandi, R. S. Sikes, L. Margutti, and C. J. Phillips. 1998. Plants, small mammals, and the hierarchical landscape classifications in Patagonia. Landscape Ecology 13:285-306. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008012613305.
Monjeau, J. A, B. Araujo, G. Abramson, M. Kuperman, M. F. Laguna, and J. L. Lanata. 2017. The controversy space on Quaternary megafaunal extinctions. Quaternary International 431:194-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.10.022.
Monteverde, M., M. M. Morales, E. Cuyckens, and M. Lucherini. 2019. Leopardus guigna. In SAyDS-SAREM (eds.). Categorización 2019 de los mamíferos de Argentina según su riesgo de extinción. Lista Roja de los mamíferos de Argentina. https://doi.org/10.31687/SaremLR.19.144.
Muñoz-Pedreros, A., and J. Yáñez (eds.). 2009. Mamíferos de Chile. Segunda edición. CEA Ediciones, Valdivia, Chile. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0716-078X2001000300021.
Muscarella, R., P. J. Galante, M. Soley‐Guardia, R. A. Boria, J. M. Kass, M. Uriarte, and R. P. Anderson. 2014. ENM eval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for MaxEnt ecological niche models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5:1198-1205. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12261.
Napolitano, C., J. Sanderson, W. Johnson, S. J. Brien, R. Hoelzel, R. A. Freer, N. Dunstone, K. Ritland, and E. Poulin. 2012. Population genetics of the felid Leopardus guigna in Southern South America: Identifying intraspecific units for conservation. Pp. 159-186 in M. Ruiz-García and J. Shostell (eds.). Molecular Population Genetics, Evolutionary Biology and Biological Conservation of Neotropical Carnivores. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. ISBN 978-60876-633-8.
Núñez Penichet, C., M. Cobos, J. Amaro, and A. Cañamero. 2016. Distribución potencial del género Omphalea (Euphorbiaceae) en Cuba: Aproximación a su distribución real [Potential distribution of the genus Omphalea (Euphorbiaceae) in Cuba: approach to its actual distribution]. Revista del Jardín Botánico Nacional 37:165-175. URL: tinyurl.com/2r2565wz.
Ortega-Huerta, M. A., and A. T. Peterson. 2005. Modelling spatial patterns of biodiversity for conservation prioritization in North-eastern Mexico. Diversity and Distributions 10:39-54. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2004.00051.x.
Paruelo, J. M., A. Beltrán, E. Jobbágy, O. E. Sala, and R. A. Golluscio. 1998. The climate of Patagonia: general patterns and controls on biotic processes. Ecología Austral 8:85-101.
Pearson, R. G., and T. P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12:361-371. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x.
Peterson, A. T., M. Papes, and M. Eaton. 2007. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and MaxEnt. Ecography 30:550-560. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2007.05102.x.
Peterson, A., J. Soberón, R. Pearson, R. Anderson, E. Martínez-Meyer, M. Nakamura, and M. Araújo. 2011. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions (MPB-49). Princeton. Oxford. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.06.185322.
Peterson, A. T., L. G. Ball, and K. P. Cohoon. 2002. Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods. Ibis 144:E27-E32. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0019-1019.2001.00031.x.
Phillips, S. J., and M. Dudik. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161-175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x.
Phillips, S. J., M. Dudık, and R. E. Schapire. 2004. A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. Pp. 655-662 in ICML´04 Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning. ACM Press, New York. https://doi.org/10.1145/1015330.1015412.
Phillips, S. J., R. P. Anderson, and R. E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190:231-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026.
Prohaska, F. 1976. The climate of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. Pp. 13-122 in W. Schwerdtfeger (ed.). Climates in Central and Southern America. World Survey of Climatology. Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710343520.
Pulliam, R. H. 2000. On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecology Letters 3:349-361. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00143.x.
Quevedo, P., A. Von Hardenberg, H. Pastore, J. Álvarez, and P. Corti. 2017. Predicting the potential distribution of the Endangered huemul deer Hippocamelus bisulcus in North Patagonia. Oryx 51:315-323. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605315001106.
Radosavljevic, A., and R. P. Anderson. 2014. Making better MaxEnt models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation. Journal of biogeography 41:629-643. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12227.
Rapoport, E. H. 1982. Areography: Geographic strategies of species. Oxford [Oxfordshire]: Published on behalf of the Fundación Bariloche by Pergamon Press.
Rosas, Y. M., P. L. Peri, A. Huertas Herrera, H. Pastore, and G. M. Martínez Pastur. 2017. Modeling of potential habitat suitability of Hippocamelus bisulcus: effectiveness of a protected areas network in Southern Patagonia. Ecological Processes 6:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-017-0096-2.
Ruiz Barlett, T., G. M. Martin, M. F. Laguna, G. Abramson, and A. Monjeau. 2019. Climatic constraints and the distribution of Patagonian mice. Journal of Mammalogy 100:1979-1991. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyz149.
Sanderson, E. W., J. Malanding, M. A. Levy, K. H. Redford, A. V. Wannebo, and G. Woolmer. 2002. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild: The human footprint is a global map of human influence on the land surface, which suggests that human beings are stewards of nature, whether we like it or not. BioScience 52:891-904. https://doi.org/10.1641/00063568(2002)052[0891:THFATL]2.0.CO;2.
Schiaffini, M. I. 2014. Ensambles de pequeños carnívoros (Carnivora: Mustelidae y Mephitidae) en Patagonia: taxonomía, distribución y repartición trófica. Tesis de Doctorado. Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina.
Schiaffini, M. I., G. M. Martin, A. L. Gimenez, and F. J. Prevosti. 2013. Distribution of Lyncodon patagonicus (Carnivora, Mustelidae): changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Journal of Mammalogy 94:339-350. https://doi.org/10.1644/12-MAMM-A-155.1.
Sepúlveda, C., A. Moreira-Muñoz, and P. Villarroel. 1997. Conservación biológica fuera de las áreas silvestres protegidas. Ambiente y Desarrollo 2:48-58. URL: bibliotecadigital.infor.cl/handle/20.500.12220/8487.
Smith-Flueck, J. M., J. Barri, N. Ferreyra, A. Núñez, N. Tomas, J. Guzman, and J. Jimenez. 2011 Advances in ecology and conservation of Hippocamelus species in South America. Animal Production Science 51:378-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN10287.
Soberón, J., and A. T. Peterson. 2005. Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics 2:1-10. https://doi.org/10.17161/bi.v2i0.4.
Svenning, J. C., and F. Skov. 2004. Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species. Ecology Letters 7:565-573. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00614.x.
Thuiller, W., L. Brotons, M. B. Araujo, and S. Lavorel. 2004. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27:165 172. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03673.x.
UICN. 2012. Categorías y Criterios de la Lista Roja de la UICN: Versión 3.1. Segunda edición. Gland, Suiza y Cambridge, Reino Unido: UICN. vi + Pp. 34. Originalmente publicado como IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. Second edition. (Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN, 2012).
Vale, M. M., M. L. Lorini, and R. Cerqueira. 2015. Neotropical Wild Cats Susceptibility to Climate Change. Oecologia Australis 19: 63-88. https://doi.org/10.4257/oeco.2015.1901.05.
Veblen, T. T., and D. C. Lorenz. 1988. Recent vegetation changes along the forest/steppe ecotone of northern Patagonia. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 78:93-111. URL: jstor.org/stable/2563442.
Vila, A. R., C. Saucedo, D. Aldridge, E. Ramilo, and P. Corti. 2010. South andean huemul Hippocamelus bisulcus (Molina 1782). Pp. 89-100 in J. M. Duarte and S. González (eds.). Neotropical cervidology: biology and medicine of Latin American deer. FUNEP-IUCN, Jaboticabal, Brazil.
Warren, D. L., and S. N. Seifert. 2011. Ecological niche modeling in MaxEnt: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecological Applications 21:335-342. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1171.1.
Wisz, M. S., R. J. Hijmans, J. Li, A. T. Peterson, C. H. Graham, A. Guisan, and N. P. S. Distribut. 2008. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions 14:763-773. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x.
Zurell, D., J. Franklin, C. König, P. J. Bouchet, C. F. Dormann, J. Elith, G. Fandos, X. Feng, G. Guillera-Arroita, A. Guisan, J. J. Lahoz-Monfort, P. J. Leitão, D. S. Park, A. T. Peterson, G. Rapacciuolo, D. R. Schmatz, B. Schröder, J. M. Serra-Diaz, W. Thuiller, K. L. Yates, N. E. Zimmermann, and C. Merow. 2020. A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models. Ecography 43:1261-1277. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04960.
Descargas
Archivos adicionales
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Melina E. Zuliani, Adrián Monjeau
Esta obra está bajo una licencia Creative Commons Reconocimiento 3.0 Unported.
Las/os autoras/es conservan sus derechos de autoras/es: 1) cediendo a la revista el derecho a su primera publicación, y 2) registrando el artículo publicado con una Licencia de Atribución de Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0), lo que permite a autoras/es y terceros verlo y utilizarlo siempre que mencionen claramente su origen (cita o referencia incluyendo autoría y primera publicación en esta revista). Las/os autores/as pueden hacer otros acuerdos de distribución no exclusiva siempre que indiquen con claridad su origen, así como compartir y divulgar ampliamente la versión publicada de su trabajo.
